OpenAI wants the ad industry's money. Publishers should read the fine print.

Every second post I see these days is about OpenAI saying to the ad industry in Cannes: "I'm ready, give me your money."

Did you know that only 4% of people who get news from an AI chatbot ever click through to the original source? Did you also know that ChatGPT ad CPMs have already fallen from $60 to around $25?

I think there was a mismatch of leverage when OpenAI made its publisher access agreements a couple of years ago. Publishers went in wanting revenue certainty, and OpenAI needed credibility and content at scale - but they also got a scalable business model out of it.

If there's a lesson here, and there surely is, I don't think it's "never licence your content to AI." It's more something like: be clear-eyed about what you are giving up, and stand by the value you believe you are actually getting back.

(Originally shared on LinkedIn.)