We built audiences on rented land
Twitter/X traffic to publishers is down 70% since 2022. AI referrals are under 1% of pageviews. We're in the gap between channels that stopped working and ones that haven't arrived.
Do you remember 10–15 years ago, when social media was still an argument in most newsrooms? Not a distribution channel but an actual argument - whether it deserved a full-time person, a budget, a seat at the table.
A Chartbeat analysis this week put a number on what's coming next: social is slipping as a meaningful discovery channel for news. Twitter/X traffic to publishers is down 70% since 2022. Facebook referrals aren't far behind.
I'm not that surprised, but it makes me uncomfortable - a lot of our media marketing strategy over the last decade was built on exactly this assumption. Optimise posting times. Test formats. Chase the algorithm. Repeat.
The lesson isn't that investing in social was a mistake (it's still needed for brand growth). It's that we confused reach, followers and impressions with relationship. A follower isn't necessarily a reader. An impression is not subscription intent.
I love a metaphor, so here's one: we built audiences on rented land, and the landlord raised the rent until it wasn't worth paying.
It's all the more confusing because traffic is generally going up on the sites around me - mostly direct. AI referrals from ChatGPT, Claude and the rest? Less than 1% of publisher pageviews right now, per Chartbeat. We're in a gap between the channels that stopped working and the ones that haven't arrived yet.
Which is why I keep thinking about those social teams. The social media editor of 2023 is becoming the audience strategist of 2026 - understanding where readers come from, what they do when they arrive, and what that tells you about product.
(Originally shared on LinkedIn.)